So there has been a lot of criticism of Natalie's move to vote out Alec over Keith which went against the majority of her alliance's plan. I however believe this move is not a game ender, and it could potentially be what wins her the million. This has a high probability of blowing up in her face, but with great risk comes great reward.
So let's break this down:
Where was Natalie's position to start with?
Natalie is in an alliance of five with two pairs. So potentially when they get down to five she could be the one in control of who goes to the final 3. She could choose John and Jaclyn, or she could choose Missy and Baylor. However she cannot control who wins immunity. So her fear is John winning his way to the final 3 despite her wanting to go with Baylor and Missy. And if he does win his way to the final 3 then it will be hard to deny him the win. Especially since he has been controlling the votes with Jaclyn for such a long time. So if we play out the votes to the end then John wins immunity at final five gives Jaclyn his idol so they are safe to the final four. That leaves Natalie who will have to use her idol to keep herself safe, which then means probably Missy going home. So now we have Baylor/ Natalie vs John/Jaclyn. Let's just say John wins immunity and best case scenario Baylor and Jaclyn go to a tie breaker fire challenge. So if Jaclyn wins then Natalie is the one left on the outside(and in case of final 2 then she is screwed). Also that would make it easy for the jury to award John the win. He won his way to the end, brought his girlfriend with him, and controlled all the votes. He would have the best story to win. And if Baylor wins then Natalie, John and Baylor are the final 3. And John will be taken down a peg because he did not get Jaclyn to the end with him, but he will automatically get her fault. And it won't be his fault she didn't show up because she had her chance. No one will vote for Baylor, except Missy, so she is a non-issue. But Natalie will have made no moves except aligning herself with the alliance of five. John will have controlled every vote except the last, he will have won so many immunity challenges, and despite Natalie's relationships with the jury they will want to vote who played the best game. And since Natalie will have made no moves to get rid of John or to take the game away from his control then how can they vote for her. If the jury votes bitterly against John and decides they just like Natalie better then that could get her the win. But would it be a deserved win?
What does voting out Alec get her?
Voting out Alec will gain her the control of the game she wants. She doesn't want John to have control over who goes home. Especially if he keeps winning immunity all the way to the end. She kept Keith to give her her best chance to beat John at an immunity challenge. But even if John wins they can still flush that idol which gives them an extra chance to get out John before the final 3. However if he does win his way to the end, then he will have to rely on his challenge wins to get him the title of sole survivor. She keeps Keith and now Keith is aligned only with her. Baylor is also aligned with her, and I don't think she's going to be swayed to go back to John and Jaclyn. Furthermore I don't think Missy wants to go to the end with John/Jaclyn so when she has to pick a side she'll side with Natalie. That way now Natalie is in control of four votes instead of John being in control of five. Now if Natalie can fight her way to the end she will have a story she can use to get her to the win. Just like in previous seasons we have learned it's not enough just to make it to the end, you have to win. Natalie has had her path to the end set for several episodes now, but she didn't have a way to win. I think by taking control of the game away from John it gave her the best chance to win. One last thing I would add is that if she kept Alec instead of Keith, he would be Baylor's tool not Natalie's. And if they got rid of Jaclyn instead that would still leave the idol unflushed and it would leave two threats in the game instead of just one (and that one would be her alliance and no one else's).
Will it blow up in her face and get her voted out?
Maybe. This was a very risky move. She could be giving up her almost assured spot in the final 3 to get voted out at 6,5, or 4. And now we see that Missy might be getting pulled from the game which will make it that much trickier especially if Keith ends up in the final 3 with her. But this is a girl that plays to win. She wants revenge, she wants control, and she wants John to taken down a notch. If she's willing to take the risk of getting out sooner so she can have a chance at a win than I am willing to applaud her for it. This almost reminds me of the move Ciera made in the original Blood vs Water when she drew the rocks and gave up her assured 4th place finish. It didn't work out for her but she played to win instead of just playing to finish as high as she could.
We'll see tonight how it works out for her. If she can get John or Jaclyn out tonight and flush the idol this will be a win for her. However if it does blow up in her face then this will be remembered as a dumb move. But I think Natalie's a very smart player and I think that at least she's playing. At least she's trying to win instead of just hanging on to the hope that somebody's gonna let you in.
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